Monday, June 4, 2012

Wisconsin Recall Update: Walker Ahead By 6+

Wisconsin's recall election is tomorrow, Tuesday, June 5, 2012 and last minute poll averages have Governor Scott Walker up by over 6 percentage points with the only poll listed over at RCP with anything less than a 5 point Walker lead is from PPP, a Democratic leaning polling service which has Walker over Tom Barrett by only 3. - Susan Duclos/Wake Up America

Intrade has Walker with a 93 percent chance of winning. (Update: 93.8%)

Last but not least, ◼ Democratic Governor Rendell now says recalling Walker was a mistake.

Statistical analysis: Nearly 95% chance of Scott Walker victory tomorrow? - HotAir
Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored - Nate Silver/New York Times

Two polls released over the weekend suggest that Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, remains the clear favorite to win Tuesday’s recall election.

Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race. We have not officially released a forecast for the race, but Mr. Walker’s lead of about six points would translate into almost a 95 percent chance of victory if we used the same formula we did to evaluate gubernatorial races in 2010, which derives its estimates from the historical accuracy of gubernatorial polls over the past 15 years.

"Wisconsin voters essentially have been asked to cast ballots every 60 days for more than a year..." - Althouse