Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Who Wins the Races in CA Depends on the “Turnout Game”



The Democratic Presidential primary is where the action is. And there’s no contested Republican Presidential primary at the top of the California ballot.
Ergo, advantage Democrats—but only if Democrats turn out in numbers large enough. In primary elections, the turnout tends to be older, more conservative, less diverse, and more adverse to increased government spending (looking much like Republicans)....

In March, will MAGA Nation (not so big a nation in California) turn out in large numbers, to show their fealty to their Dear Leader? Or, since Trump lacks any real opponents on the ballot, will his voters just stay home?

Will Democrats, and Never Trumpers of all stripes, storm the ballot box? Will California’s top-two primary, resuscitate the state’s GOP for November’s down-ballot races, or will an overwhelming Democratic turnout in March conclusively cut the party off at the knees?